На что это похоже?

[anillarionov]

Первые итоги переписи продолжают давать пищу для размышлений.
Продолжающееся почти два десятилетия подряд сокращение абсолютной численности населения страны не имеет прецедентов в истории нашей страны, по крайней мере, в течение последних двух столетий. С 1989 г. по 2010 г. население России уменьшилось на 4,5 млн. чел. За эти же годы чистая иммиграция (разница между числом иммигрантов в Россию и числом эмигрантов из нее) составила, очевидно, не менее 5,5 млн. чел. Если бы чистая иммиграция в эти годы была равна нулю, то население России сегодня составляло бы не 142,9 млн. чел. (официальные данные переписи 2010 г.), а скорее 137,5 млн. чел.

Наряду с сокращением общей численности населения продолжающееся снижение удельного веса мужчин в общей численности населения заставляет задуматься о причинах и исторических аналогах этого процесса.

Для 1897 г. использованы данные для Европейской России и Сибири без привислинских губерний, Кавказа и Средней Азии.
Источники: данные переписей 1897, 1926, 1939, 1959, 1970, 1979, 1989, 2002, 2010 гг.:
http://demoscope.ru/weekly/pril.php
http://www.gks.ru/free_doc/new_site/population/demo/perepis2010/tab2.xls

Снижение удельного веса мужчин в общей численности населения демографами традиционно интерпретируется как следствие военно-политических катаклизмов – войн, революций, репрессий, в которых мужчины погибают, как правило, чаще, чем женщины. Последствия войн особенно заметны в резком снижении числа мужчин по сравнению с числом женщин в межпереписные периоды 1897-1926 гг. и 1939-1959 гг.

В период относительно мирного развития страны (между переписями 1959 г. и 1989 г.) удельный вес мужчин в общей численности населения постепенно увеличивался – как за счет более быстрого естественного прироста, так и отчасти за счет иммиграции в Россию большего количества мужчин, чем женщин.

Слом этой тенденции после 1989 г. и возобновление процесса опережающего сокращения мужского населения в течение двух последних межпереписных периодов – 1989-2002 гг. и 2002-2010 гг. – свидетельствуют о происходившем (происходящем - ?) демографическом катаклизме, схожем по характеру своих последствий с военными действиями и аналогичными социально-политическими катастрофами.

Скорость уменьшения удельного веса мужчин в общей численности населения в 1989-2002 гг. и в 2002-2010 гг. (на 0,21 и на 0,31 процентного пункта в среднем за десятилетие) была в 4-6 раз ниже скорости уменьшения этого показателя в межпереписной период 1939-1959 гг. (на 1,28 п.п. в среднем за десятилетие), вызванного прежде всего огромными потерями мужского населения во второй мировой войне.

Однако она оказалась лишь в полтора-два раза меньше скорости уменьшения удельного веса мужчин в межпереписные периоды 1897-1926 гг. и 1926-1939 гг. (на 0,47 и 0,45 п.п. в среднем за десятилетие). Крупнейшими социально-политическими событиями тех периодов, имевшими катастрофические демографические последствия, были: первая мировая война, гражданская война, голод 1921-22 гг., коллективизация, индустриализация, голод 1932-33 гг., волны Большого террора.

Comments

[hypothesorigin.livejournal.com]

расстрелять статистиков за вредительскую перепись.

[oleg-butenko.livejournal.com]

А в Китае - наоборот. 30 миллионов мужчин не могут найти себе жен. Может, им стоит поискать подружек на севере? Так решатся демографические проблемы в обеих странах. Я серьезно.

[blyag.livejournal.com]

Вряд ли им захочется жениться на женщинах за 50 ;)

[one-sergey.livejournal.com]

В Китае есть четкое объяснение этой диспропорции.
1.Отсутсвие пенсионной системы и как следствие желание семьи иметь сына, который бы мог кормить родителей в старости.
2.Возможность иметь только одного ребенка в семье. В виду первого пункта многие семьи предпочитают иметь мальчика. Поэтому очень часто избавляются от беременности когда ультразвук показывает девочку.

В России такого четкого и простого объяснения диспропорции не усматривается.

[claire-1973.livejournal.com]

По поводу голода версия - скорее всего, страдали от голода всё же независимо от половой принадлежности и, между тем, как раз в 32-33-х и в 47-м, когда в массовом порядке именно мужчины привлекались к строительству объектов инфраструктуры (первый случай) и не были демобилизованы из армии (второй), имел мужской пол некоторые преимущества в выживании.

После войны же у массы выживших, призванных из сельских регионах, появилась возможность не возвращаться, в городах же снабжение продовольствием было несколько лучше. ИМХО.

[starik75.livejournal.com]

страдали от голода всё же независимо от половой принадлежности
настоящий мужчина всегда отдаст свою еду нуждающейся жене и детям.
а потом пойдет искать ее и умрет в борьбе с другими мужчинами за кусок еды

[smithjv.livejournal.com]

Насколько сильно можно доверять результатам двух последних переписей?
По личному опыту, и основываясь на беседах со знакомыми переписчиками, можно сделать вывод только о том, что результаты этих переписей практически высосаны из пальца.
Существуют ли в статистике механизмы компенсации приписок, неприходов переписчиков, массового игнорирования населением опросов?

[starik75.livejournal.com]

есть конечно.
именно поэтому результаты переписи так долго обрабатывают.

[tmmos01.livejournal.com]

Не очень уверен что стоят анализа эти данные, т к
ни меня ни моих знакомы и родственников (почти никого ) никто не переписывал

[greenda.livejournal.com]

кроме всего прочего интересно, что в 1897 количество мужчин и женщин было практически одинаковым.

одинаковым оно быть не должно

[mgolovanov.livejournal.com]

даже если вероятности зачатия по 0.5, мальчики ведут себя всегда более рискованно и гибнут чаще (тонут, взрываются, разбиваются...). Девочки всегда более осторожны, осмотрительны и боязливы.Я, к примеру, в детстве имел не менее 3 случаев "на грани", сестра - насколько знаю ни одного

поэтому соотношение 1897 нормальное

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

BMJ 1998;317:312-318 ( 1 August )

Economic change, crime, and mortality crisis in Russia: regional analysis

Peder Walberg, medical student, a Martin McKee, professor of European public health, b Vladimir Shkolnikov, head of laboratory for analysis and prognosis of population mortality, c Laurent Chenet, research fellow, b David A Leon, reader in epidemiology. b

a Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, University of Uppsala, S-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden, b European Centre on Health of Societies in Transition, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London WC1E 7HT, c Centre of Demography and Human Ecology, Institute for Economic Forecasting, 117418 Moscow, Russian Federation
Correspondence to: Professor McKee m.mckee@lshtm.ac.uk

Abstract

Objective: To identify which aspects of socioeconomic change were associated with the steep decline in life expectancy in Russia between 1990 and 1994.

Design: Regression analysis of regional data, with percentage fall in male life expectancy as dependent variable and a range of socioeconomic measures reflecting transition, change in income, inequity, and social cohesion as independent variables. Determination of contribution of deaths from major causes and in each age group to changes in both male and female life expectancy at birth in regions with the smallest and largest declines.

Setting: Regions (oblasts) of European Russia (excluding Siberia and those in the Caucasus affected by the Chechen war).

Subjects: The population of European Russia.

Results: The fall in life expectancy at birth varied widely between regions, with declines for men and women highly correlated. The regions with the largest falls were predominantly urban, with high rates of labour turnover, large increases in recorded crime, and a higher average but unequal distribution of household income. For both men and women increasing rates of death between the ages of 30 and 60 years accounted for most of the fall in life expectancy, with the greatest contributions being from conditions directly or indirectly associated with heavy alcohol consumption.

Conclusions: The decline in life expectancy in Russia in the 1990s cannot be attributed simply to impoverishment. Instead, the impact of social and economic transition, exacerbated by a lack of social cohesion, seems to have played a major part. The evidence that alcohol is an important proximate cause of premature death in Russia is strengthened.

Key messages

• The fall in life expectancy in Russia in the 1990s has not affected all parts of the country equally
• The greatest falls have been in some of the wealthiest regions, suggesting that impoverishment is not a sufficient explanation
• Much of the deterioration can be explained by labour force turnover, crime rates (which can be considered a proxy measure of social cohesion), and income inequality
• Alcohol is a major factor in many of the additional deaths
• Understanding changes in mortality in central and eastern Europe during the transition (from a communist to a capitalist system) may shed light on determinants of health in the West

[aillarionov.livejournal.com]

crime rates (which can be considered a proxy measure of LACK of social cohesion)

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

Lessons from health during the transition from communism

Martin McKee, Ellen Nolte

BMJ 2004;329:1428–9

Summary points

Countries in transition from communism provide valuable information on the effects of democracy on health

Health improvements have been greatest in countries that have embraced democracy most enthusiastically

Lack of democratic structures in some countries of the former Soviet Union acts as a barrier to the implementation of healthy public policies

[aillarionov.livejournal.com]

Health improvements have been greatest in countries that have embraced democracy most enthusiastically.
Lack of democratic structures... acts as a barrier to healthy policies

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

Alcohol and cause-specifi c mortality in Russia: a retrospective case–control study of 48 557 adult deaths

David Zaridze, Paul Brennan, Jillian Boreham, Alex Boroda, Rostislav Karpov, Alexander Lazarev, Irina Konobeevskaya, Vladimir Igitov, Tatiana Terechova, Paolo Boff etta, Richard Peto

Lancet 2009; 373: 2201–14

Summary

Background: Alcohol is an important determinant of the high and fl uctuating adult mortality rates in Russia, but cause-specifi c detail is lacking. Our case–control study investigated the eff ects of alcohol consumption on male and female cause-specifi c mortality.

Methods: In three Russian industrial cities with typical 1990s mortality patterns (Tomsk, Barnaul, Biysk), the aadresses of 60 416 residents who had died at ages 15–74 years in 1990–2001 were visited in 2001–05. Family members were present for 50 066 decedents; for 48 557 (97%), the family gave proxy information on the decedents’ past alcohol use and on potentially confounding factors. Cases (n=43 082) were those certified as dying from causes we judged beforehand might be substantially affected by alcohol or tobacco; controls were the other 5475 decedents. Case versus control relative risks (RRs; calculated as odds ratios by confounder-adjusted logistic regression) were calculated in ever-drinkers, defi ning the reference category by two criteria: usual weekly consumption always less than 0,5 half-litre bottles of vodka (or equivalent in total alcohol content) and maximum consumption of spirits in 1 day always less than 0,5 half-litre bottles. Other ever-drinkers were classifi ed by usual weekly consumption into three categories: less than one, one to less than three, and three or more (mean 5,4 [SD 1,4]) bottles of vodka or equivalent.

Findings: In men, the three causes accounting for the most alcohol-associated deaths were accidents and violence (RR 5,94, 95% CI 5,35–6,59, in the highest consumption category), alcohol poisoning (21,68, 17,94–26,20), and acute ischaemic heart disease other than myocardial infarction (3,04, 2,73–3,39), which includes some misclassified alcohol poisoning. There were significant excesses of upper aerodigestive tract cancer (3,48, 2,84–4,27) and liver cancer (2,11, 1,64–2,70). Another five disease groups had RRs of more than 3,00 in the highest alcohol category: tuberculosis (4,14, 3,44–4,98), pneumonia (3,29, 2,83–3,83), liver disease (6,21, 5,16–7,47), pancreatic disease (6,69, 4,98–9,00), and ill-specified conditions (7,74, 6,48–9,25). Although drinking was less common in women, the RRs associated with it were generally more extreme. After correction for reporting errors, alcohol-associated excesses accounted for 52% of all study deaths at ages 15–54 years (men 8182 [59%] of 13968, women 1565 [33%] of 4751) and 18% of those at 55–74 years (men 3944 [22%] of 17 536, women 1493 [12%] of 12 302). Allowance for underrepresentation of extreme drinkers would further increase alcohol-associated proportions. Large fluctuations in mortality from these ten strongly alcohol-associated causes were the main determinants of recent fluctuations in overall mortality in the study region and in Russia as a whole.

Interpretation: Alcohol-attributable mortality varies by year; in several recent years, alcohol was a cause of more than half of all Russian deaths at ages 15–54 years. Alcohol accounts for most of the large fluctuations in Russian mortality, and alcohol and tobacco account for the large difference in adult mortality between Russia and western Europe.

[aillarionov.livejournal.com]

Очевидно, алкоголь был одной из основных причин смертности в течение длительного времени, в том числе и до 1989 г. (1991-92 гг.) и до 1985 г.
В чем важно разобраться - это в том, произошли ли на рубеже 1980-90-х годов радикальные изменения в потреблении алкоголя не столько по сравнению с 1985-90 гг., сколько по сравнению с периодом до 1985 г.
И если да, то почему? Почему именно в это время?

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

Влияние приватизаций:

The Lancet, Volume 373, Issue 9661, Pages 399 - 407, 31 January 2009
doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(09)60005-2

15 January 2009

Editors' note: A useful drug alters the course of illness in around one in ten people who take it, as opposed to placebo. What about an intervention that saves millions of lives? Or an intervention that kills millions of people? The economic and social restructuring of eastern Europe, from 1989 onwards, can be regarded as one of the largest public-health experiments in history. This study compares the effects of rapid mass privatisation, such as that done in Russia, to those of more gradual restructuring. Rapid mass privatisation was associated with an increase of 12.8% in mortality rates among men. Possible mechanisms? Rapid social change has been linked to psychological stress, decreased access to and quality of medical care, poverty, unemployment, social inequality, social disorganisation, corruption, and an erosion of social capital. Harmful consumption of alcohol may have been a major cause of increased disease.

Mass privatisation and the post-communist mortality crisis: a cross-national analysis

David Stuckler MPH a Corresponding AuthorEmail Address, Lawrence King PhD a, Prof Martin McKee MD b

Summary

Background

During the early-1990s, adult mortality rates rose in most post-communist European countries. Substantial differences across countries and over time remain unexplained. Although previous studies have suggested that the pace of economic transition was a key driver of increased mortality rates, to our knowledge no study has empirically assessed the role of specific components of transition policies. We investigated whether mass privatisation can account for differences in adult mortality rates in such countries.

Methods

We used multivariate longitudinal regression to analyse age-standardised mortality rates in working-age men (15—59 years) in post-communist countries of eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union from 1989 to 2002. We defined mass privatisation programmes as transferring at least 25% of large state-owned enterprises to the private sector within 2 years with the use of vouchers and give-aways to firm insiders. To isolate the effect of mass privatisation, we used models to control for price and trade liberalisation, income change, initial country conditions, structural predispositions to higher mortality, and other potential confounders.

Findings

Mass privatisation programmes were associated with an increase in short-term adult male mortality rates of 12,8% (95% CI 7,9—17,7; p<0,0001), with similar results for the alternative privatisation indices from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (7,8% [95% CI 2,8—13,0]). One mediating factor could be male unemployment rates, which were increased substantially by mass privatisation (56,3% [28,3—84,3]; p<0·0001). Each 1% increase in the percentage of population who were members of at least one social organisation decreased the association of privatisation with mortality by 0,27%; when more than 45% of a population was a member of at least one social organisation, privatisation was no longer significantly associated with increased mortality rates (3,4% [95% CI −5,4 to 12,3]; p=0,44).

Interpretation

Rapid mass privatisation as an economic transition strategy was a crucial determinant of differences in adult mortality trends in post-communist countries; the effect of privatisation was reduced if social capital was high. These findings might be relevant to other countries in which similar policies are being considered.

http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2809%2960005-2/fulltext#article_upsell

Интересно, но совершенно закономерно, что наличие социального капитала уменьшает смертность. Может быть одна причина высокой смертности в Россий является не только потребление алкоголя, но и низкий уровень социального капитала, особенно на уровне государства/обшества. Косвенным доказательством последнего может служить уровень коррупций.

[monogatarist.livejournal.com]

Эту статью достаточно обоснованно критиковали за некорректность выводов.

Причина сокращения населения в РФ лежит на поверхност

[svarkhipov.livejournal.com]

В России очень низкий уровень жизни основной массы населения. Зарплаты и другие доходы, качество медицинского обслуживания в стране низкие даже не по европейским или американским, а по африканским меркам

Проще говоря - власти воруют, народ голодает

Это враньё, почти по всем пунктам.

[zebra24.livejournal.com]

Начнём с того, что в Африке отсутствует питьевая вода, не говоря уже об антисанитарии и инфекциях, характерных только для стран третьего мира.

С зарплатами тоже враньё.

Другое дело, что сравнивать надо с Европой, а не с Африкой.

С причинами пожалуй соглашусь - не воровали-бы, было-бы лучше, но это часть проблемы.

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

Russian mortality trends for 1991-2001: analysis by cause and region

Tamara Men, Paul Brennan, Paolo Boffetta, David Zaridze

BMJ VOLUME 327. 25 OCTOBER 2003

Abstract

Objectives: To investigate trends in Russian mortality for 1991-2001 with particular reference to trends since the Russian economic crisis in 1998 and to geographical differences within Russia.

Design: Analysis of data obtained from the Russian State statistics committee for 1991-2001. All cause mortality was compared between seven federal regions. Comparison of cause specific rates was conducted for young (15-34 years) and middle aged adults (35-69 years). The number of Russian adults who died before age 70 in the period 1992-2001 and whose deaths were attributable to increased mortality was calculated.

Main outcome measures: Age, sex, and cause specific mortality standardised to the world population.

Results: Mortality increased substantially after the economic crisis in 1998, with life expectancy falling to 58.9 years among men and 71.8 years among women by 2001. Most of these fluctuations were due to changes in mortality from vascular disease and violent deaths (mainly suicides, homicides, unintentional poisoning, and traffic incidents) among young and middle aged adults. Trends were similar in all parts of Russia. An extra 2.5-3 million Russian adults died in middle age in the period 1992-2001 than would have been expected based on 1991 mortality.

Conclusions: Russian mortality was already high in 1991 and has increased further in the subsequent decade. Fluctuations in mortality seem to correlate strongly with underlying economic and societal factors. On an individual level, alcohol consumption is strongly implicated in being at least partially responsible for many of these trends.

http://www.bmj.com/content/327/7421/964.full.pdf?sid=532ea18a-1fd6-43d2-9aad-c839522f439b

Societal factors
Other proposed explanations for these rapid mortality changes include lifestyle and societal factors linked to general economic and political uncertainty.5 The rapid transition from a state controlled communist society to a capitalist society, which started in 1991 with rapid relaxation of economic controls, was combined with much political and societal uncertainty and resulted in devaluation of the currency, hyperinflation, increasing inequality, and removal of most forms of job protection. After some general improvement in the period 1994-8, a second economic crisis occurred in July-August 1998, which again resulted in further devaluation of the currency, an increase in inflation, and further political and economic uncertainty. Although the effect on mortality patterns seems to have been immediate, what remains to be identified is the exact role of rapid changes in alcohol consumption as opposed to other less clearly defined factors such as perceived lack of control over outside events, an increase in social stress, or a breakdown in trauma care.

[bel-ok.livejournal.com]

Молодым девчонкам надо уезжать из России. В Китай, например. Там им проще будет выйти замуж.

[mokle.livejournal.com]

А есть еще вариант - привозить мужа.
Почему бы это не предложить девчонкам?

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

World Health Organization
Global status report on alcohol and healt 2011

1.Alcoholism - epidemiology.
2.Alcohol drinking - adverse effects.
3.Social control, Formal - methods.
4.Cost of illness.
5.Public policy.

http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcohol_report/msbgsruprofiles.pdf

[Зворыкин Яков (from livejournal.com)]

По-моему, это качественная демонстрация отъезда мужчин из страны.
Просто мужчины в среднем делают 60% ВВП при их 45% количестве (оценка).
Мужчины меньше привязаны к месту, проще переезжают и меняют работу.
Уничтожение экономической свободы вымывает мужчин.
Поехать сначала на месяц в те же Штаты. Потом на три месяца, потом насовсем.

Вот даже конца восьмидесятых моё поколение: очень многие уехали. Остались только те, у кого уже есть дети, или "мы с женой еще подумаем". Я - исключение. ПОКА еще не уехал. Хотя принципиальные возможности есть.

Алкоголь, табак - а женщины не курят и не пьют? Да, процент мужского курения (60-70%) выше, чем женского (30-40%), но и качество курения отличается. Женщины более склонны к постоянному курению и алкоголю, когда мужчины проще завязывают.

[mart-murdvee.livejournal.com]

Влияние безработицы на смертность разное для женщин и мужшин - у мужчин это два раза больше.

Men Who Lose Their Jobs At Greater Risk Of Dying Prematurely

Research by McGill Sociology Professor Eran Shor, working in collaboration with researchers from Stony Brook University, has revealed that unemployment increases the risk of premature mortality by 63 per cent. Shor reached these conclusions by surveying existing research covering 20 million people in 15 (mainly western) countries, over the last 40 years.

One surprising finding was that, in spite of expectations that a better health-care system might contribute to lower mortality rates, the correlation between unemployment and a higher risk of death was the same in all the countries covered by the study.

The truly groundbreaking aspect of the research is that it suggests that there is a causal relationship between unemployment and a higher risk of death.

"Until now, one of the big questions in the literature has been about whether pre-existing health conditions, such as diabetes or heart problems, or behaviours such as smoking, drinking or drug use, lead to both unemployment and a greater risk of death," Shor said. "What's interesting about our work is that we found that preexisting health conditions had no effect, suggesting that the unemployment-mortality relationship is quite likely a causal one. This probably has to do with unemployment causing stress and negatively affecting one's socioeconomic status, which in turn leads to poorer health and higher mortality rates."

The research also showed that unemployment increases men's mortality risk more than it does women's mortality risk (78 per cent vs. 37 per cent respectively). The research also showed that there is a much higher correlation between unemployment and mortality for men than for women (78 per cent vs. 37 per cent). The risk of death is particularly high for those who are under the age of 50.

"We suspect that even today, not having a job is more stressful for men than for women." Shor said. "When a man loses his job, it still often means that the family will become poorer and suffer in various ways, which in turn can have a huge impact on a man's health by leading to both increased smoking, drinking or eating and by reducing the availability of healthy nutrition and health care services."

The research suggests that public-health initiatives could target unemployed people for more aggressive cardiovascular screening and interventions aimed at reducing risk-taking behaviours.

Source: McGill University

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/221223.php

[yhwh7270.livejournal.com]

Population Russia: 138,739,892 (July 2011 est.) - сайт ЦРУ.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html